How to use the set mining calculator

Enter the amount you must call with your pocket pair.
Enter the pot before your call (the raise, the blinds and any other callers).
Enter the effective stack — the smaller of your stack and the raiser's.
Estimate how much of the remaining stack you win on average when you flop a set.

What is set mining?

Set mining means calling with a small or medium pocket pair mainly to flop a set. You hit only about one flop in 8.5, so the times you hit must pay for all the times you miss and fold.

EV = 11.8% × (pot + amount won later) − 88.2% × call

Example: you call $12 into a $15 pot with 300 effective. If you win 30% of the remaining $288 when you hit, EV = 0.118 × ($15 + $86) − 0.882 × $12 ≈ +$1.30. A marginal but profitable call.

The 15-to-1 rule (and why it is a rule of thumb)

A common guideline is to set mine only when the effective stack is at least 15 times the call, and ideally 20 times. The real answer depends on how often your opponent pays you off: against tight players who fold everything but sets, even 20x may not be enough; against loose players who stack off with one pair, 12x can work.

What lowers your set mining profit

Opponents behind who might re-raise and make you fold.
Being out of position, which makes it harder to get paid.
Set over set (about 1% of the time) and losing to straights and flushes.

FAQ

How often do you flop a set?

About 11.8% of the time, including the rare flops that give you four of a kind.

Should I set mine in tournaments?

Less often. Stacks are usually shallower, so the implied odds are smaller. Check the stack-to-call ratio before calling.

Set Mining Calculator