How to use the bluff calculator
- Enter the pot before you bet.
- Enter your bluff size, or tap a quick size.
- Optionally, enter how often you think your opponent will fold to see the EV.
How often does a bluff need to work?
A pure bluff wins the pot when your opponent folds and loses your bet when they call. It breaks even when:
Fold % needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet)
Example: the pot is $80 and you bluff $60. 60 ÷ 140 = 42.9%. If your opponent folds more often than that, the bluff makes money.
Break-even by bet size
| Bet size | Bluff must work |
|---|---|
| 25% pot | 20% |
| 33% pot | 25% |
| 50% pot | 33.3% |
| 75% pot | 42.9% |
| Pot | 50% |
| 150% pot | 60% |
| 2x pot | 66.7% |
Choosing good bluffs
- Pick the right opponent. Thinking players who can fold are good targets; calling stations are not.
- Tell a believable story. Your bet should make sense with the strong hands you would play the same way.
- Use blockers. Bluff with hands that make your opponent's strong hands less likely.
- Prefer semi-bluffs. With a draw you still win some of the time when called. Use the fold equity calculator for those.
FAQ
Do small bluffs work better?
They need to work less often, but players also fold less to small bets. What matters is whether the fold rate beats the break-even number.
How do I defend against bluffs?
Use the same math in reverse: see the MDF calculator.