Fold equity is the extra value a bet or raise gets from the chance that your opponent folds. When you bet, you can win in two ways: your opponent folds, or they call and you have the best hand at showdown. Fold equity is the first part.
The fold equity formula
The expected value of a bet is:
EV = (fold % × pot) + (call % × (equity × final pot − your bet))
Your bet only needs a fold probability large enough to make up for the times you are called and behind.
A worked example
The pot is $100. You have a flush draw (about 35% equity) and move all-in for $100. If your opponent folds 40% of the time:
- Fold: 0.40 × $100 = +$40
- Call: 0.60 × (0.35 × $300 − $100) = 0.60 × $5 = +$3
- Total EV: +$43, much better than checking and giving up.
What increases fold equity
- A bigger bet compared with the pot.
- A tight, thinking opponent who can fold.
- A scary board for your opponent’s range.
- Your image: a tight image makes your bets more believable.
When you have no fold equity
Against players who never fold, or when your opponent is already all-in, fold equity is zero and only your hand’s equity counts. Run your own numbers with the expected value calculator, and see the full poker glossary.