Why ICM changes push/fold ranges
Near the money or at a final table, chips you lose cost you more in prize money than the same chips you win are worth. The bubble factor measures this: a bubble factor of 1.5 means a chip lost hurts one and a half times as much as a chip won helps. Calling ranges shrink a lot under that pressure. Shoving ranges barely change and can even widen, because everyone behind you now folds more often, so stealing the blinds and antes works better. The chart above is preset to 10bb with a bubble factor of 1.5.
10bb ranges by bubble factor (9-handed, big blind ante)
| Spot | 1.0 (chip EV) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Button shoves | 44% | 41% | 47% | 59% |
| Small blind shoves | 72% | 73% | 82% | 100% |
| Cutoff shoves | 33% | 32% | 38% | 39% |
| Big blind calls a button shove | 35% | 22% | 15% | 11% |
| Big blind calls a small-blind shove | 54% | 37% | 28% | 20% |
Exact 10bb ranges at a bubble factor of 1.5
- Button shove (45%): 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J5s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o
- Big blind call vs the button (17%): 55+, A4s+, KTs+, QJs, A7o+, KJo+
Typical bubble factors
Early in a tournament the bubble factor is close to 1.0. It rises as the money gets closer, often to around 1.2–1.5 for a medium stack a few places from the bubble, and to 2 or more for a medium stack facing a big stack on the bubble itself or at a final table with steep pay jumps. To measure a specific spot, compare the prize equity you gain by winning a pot with what you lose by losing it in our ICM calculator.
How these ranges were calculated
We weight every chip lost by the bubble factor and every chip won by 1, then solve shoving and calling together to an equilibrium. One bubble factor applies to every player, which is a simplification: in real ICM spots the big stack has a lower bubble factor than the short stacks. See how we calculate for the full method.
More charts: push/fold chart · reshove chart · PKO bounty ranges · ICM bubble ranges · by stack: 5bb, 8bb, 10bb, 12bb, 15bb, 20bb · by seat: button, cutoff, small blind, UTG · 6-max · heads-up · big blind calling ranges.