Variance is the natural swing between your short-term results and your true long-term win rate. A winning player can lose for weeks, and a losing player can win for a month. Over enough hands the swings even out, but “enough” is much longer than most people expect.
Variance in numbers
Variance is measured with standard deviation. In no-limit hold’em cash games, a typical standard deviation is about 80–100 big blinds per 100 hands online, and roughly 60–90 big blinds per hour live. Compare that with a solid win rate of 5 bb/100: a single 100-hand stretch swings far more than you win on average.
How long can a downswing last?
For a player winning 5 bb/100 with a standard deviation of 90, a downswing of 20 buy-ins (2,000 big blinds) over tens of thousands of hands is entirely normal. See the numbers in our downswing simulation study, or run your own in the variance simulator.
What makes variance bigger
- Tournaments, especially large fields: most of the profit comes from rare deep runs.
- Aggressive styles that play many big pots.
- Pot-limit Omaha, where equities run closer.
- Short samples — a month of live play is only a few thousand hands.
How to handle variance
- Keep a proper bankroll. Most guides suggest 20–40 buy-ins for cash games and 100+ for tournaments. Use the bankroll calculator and the risk of ruin calculator.
- Judge decisions, not results. Review hands by whether the play was correct.
- Track everything. A long record in the free poker tracker is the only way to separate skill from luck.
More terms in the poker glossary.