What the simulator shows
The simulator plays 1,000 separate runs of the number of hands you choose, using your win rate and standard deviation, and measures in each run:
- Typical worst downswing: the median of the biggest peak-to-valley drop across the 1,000 runs.
- 1 in 10 players see: the 90th percentile downswing. Bad luck that a tenth of players with your skill will face.
- Chance of losing overall: runs that end below zero despite a positive win rate.
- Longest break-even stretch: the typical longest gap between new all-time highs.
Typical values
| Game | Standard deviation (bb/100) |
|---|---|
| No-limit hold’em full ring | 60–80 |
| No-limit hold’em 6-max | 80–110 |
| Heads-up no-limit | 110–150 |
| Pot-limit Omaha 6-max | 130–160+ |
Your tracking software reports your own standard deviation. With fewer than 20,000 hands, your measured win rate is mostly noise, so try a few values.
Why downswings are bigger than you expect
A winner at 5 bb/100 with a standard deviation of 90 still commonly sees downswings of 15 to 30 buy-ins over 100,000 hands, and the unlucky tenth see much worse. That is why bankroll rules ask for so many buy-ins. Our downswing study ran 30,000 players for 500,000 hands each. To size your bankroll, use the bankroll calculator and risk of ruin calculator.
How it works
Results are drawn in blocks of 100 hands from a normal distribution with your win rate as the mean and your standard deviation as the spread. This is the standard model for poker results. Real results can have fatter tails, from tilt, game changes and very big pots, so treat these numbers as a minimum.
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