Odds of being dealt each starting hand
There are 1,326 possible two-card starting hands. Pocket aces can be dealt 6 ways, so you get them once every 221 hands on average (0.45%). Any pocket pair comes 78 ways out of 1,326: once every 17 hands (5.9%). Ace-king comes 16 ways (1.2%), and ace-king suited only 4 (0.30%, once every 332 hands).
At a table, the chance that someone has pocket aces rises with the number of players: 2.71% at 6 players and 4.06% at 9 players. Change the number of players in the tool above to see every starting hand.
Odds of hitting the board
| Situation | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair flops a set or better | 11.8% | 7.5 : 1 |
| Pocket pair makes a set or better by the river | 19.2% | 4.2 : 1 |
| Unpaired hand pairs a hole card on the flop | 32.4% | 2.1 : 1 |
| Suited hand flops a flush | 0.8% | 117.8 : 1 |
| Suited hand flops a flush draw | 10.9% | 8.1 : 1 |
| Suited hand makes a flush by the river | 6.4% | 14.6 : 1 |
| Flush draw on the flop hits by the river | 35.0% | 1.9 : 1 |
| Open-ended straight draw hits by the river | 31.5% | 2.2 : 1 |
| Gutshot hits by the river | 16.5% | 5.1 : 1 |
Why set mining works
A pocket pair flops a set or better about 11.8% of the time, or 7.5 to 1 against. That is why players call raises with small pairs when stacks are deep: if they win a big pot the 1 time in 8.5 they hit, calling pays off. As a rule of thumb, you want the stacks to be at least 15 to 20 times the amount you have to call.
Hitting your draw
With a flush draw on the flop you have 9 outs: 35% to hit by the river if you see both cards, but only 19.1% to hit on the turn alone. Count your outs and compare against your pot odds with the outs chart and the pot odds calculator.
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