Bet sizing cheat sheet
| Bet (% of pot) | Caller needs equity | Minimum defense frequency | Bluff needs folds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 16.7% | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 33% | 19.9% | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 50% | 25.0% | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 66% | 28.4% | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 75% | 30.0% | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| 100% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 150% | 37.5% | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 200% | 40.0% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
What each number means
Equity to call (pot odds)
The share of the time the caller must win for a call to break even: bet / (pot + 2 × bet). Facing a pot-sized bet you need 33.3%.
Minimum defense frequency (MDF)
pot / (pot + bet). If the defender folds more often than this, the bettor profits by bluffing with any two cards. It is a guide rather than a rule: against players who rarely bluff, folding more is fine.
Bluff needs folds (alpha)
bet / (pot + bet). The share of the time a pure bluff must work to break even. A half-pot bluff needs to work 33.3% of the time.
River bluff share
For a balanced river betting range, bluffs should make up bet / (pot + 2 × bet) of your bets. That leaves the caller indifferent between calling and folding. With a pot-sized bet, that is one bluff for every two value bets.
Stack-to-pot ratio (SPR)
Effective stack divided by the pot. Low SPRs (under 3) make it easy to get all-in with top pair, while high SPRs (over 10) call for stronger hands to play a big pot.
For draws, combine these numbers with the pot odds calculator and EV calculator.
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